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Gross domestic product (GDP) in Emerging Asia is expected to grow by 6.4% in 2017, unchanged from the 2016 rate (Table 1), and 6.3% during 2018-22, according to the OECD Development Centre’s Medium-term Projection Framework (MPF-2018). Emerging Asia’s estimated growth rate in 2017 is higher compared with the projected growth rates of Latin America and the Caribbean, 1.1%, and Africa, 3.4%. Growth in ASEAN and China is on a somewhat steeper upward trajectory in 2017 on the strength of the trade rebound and resilience of domestic consumption, whereas India’s growth in 2017 appears to be retreating as the economy wobbles due to the effects of demonetisation and the impact of tax changes. Over the medium term, however, China’s growth rate is expected to slow to an average of 6.2%, while India’s average expansion rate in the next five years will remain robust at 7.3%. Structural reform challenges in China indicate that the pace of growth will slow from its 2011-15 rate. Southeast Asia is poised to achieve average growth of 5.2% between 2018 and 2022, relatively unchanged from 5.1% between 2011 and 2015. Growth prospects of ASEAN are anchored on robust domestic demand and on the infrastructure initiatives presented by a number of governments. Among the bloc’s ten member countries, Cambodia, Lao PDR and Myanmar are projected to grow the fastest from now through 2022, while the Philippines and Viet Nam are expected to lead in growth among the ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam). 20 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST ASIA, CHINA AND INDIA 2018: FOSTERING GROWTH THROUGH DIGITALISATION © OECD 2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST ASIA, CHINA AND INDIA 2018: FOSTERING GROWTH THROUGH DIGITALISATION © OECD 2018 21 Table 1. Real GDP Growth in ASEAN, China and India Annual percentage change 2016 2017 2018-22 (average) 2011-15 (average) ASEAN-5 countries Indonesia 5.0 5.0 5.4 5.5 Malaysia 4.2 5.5 4.9 5.3 Philippines 6.9 6.6 6.4 5.9 Thailand 3.2 3.8 3.6 2.9 Viet Nam 6.2 6.3 6.2 5.9 Brunei Darussalam and Singapore Brunei Darussalam -2.5 0.0 0.5 -0.1 Singapore 2.0 3.2 2.3 4.1 CLM countries Cambodia 6.9 7.1 7.2 7.2 Lao PDR 7.0 6.9 7.1 7.9 Myanmar 5.9 7.2 7.4 7.3 China and India China 6.7 6.8 6.2 7.9 India 7.1 6.6 7.3 6.8 Average of ASEAN-10 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.1 Average of Emerging Asia 6.4 6.4 6.3 7.1 Note: The cut-off date is 31 October 2017. ASEAN and Emerging Asia are the weighted averages of those of the individual economies in these groupings. Data for India, Lao PDR and Myanmar follow fiscal years. The projections of China, India and Indonesia for 2017 are based on the results from the OECD Economics Department’s ShortTerm Economic Prospects (STEP) Meeting in October 2017