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Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation Plus

Overall, growth in 2017 in Emerging Asia (Southeast Asia, China and India) is expected to remain strong. In 2017, growth in China and ASEAN is expected to pick up on a strong trade rebound and resilient domestic consumption while growth in India is anticipated to nudge down owing to taxation and monetary reforms. Over the medium term (2018-22), the region’s growth is projected to remain robust, though slightly lower in comparison with the average pace between 2011 and 2015. While the growth rate of China is slowing, growth in India is anticipated to stay brisk. Southeast Asia is poised to maintain its growth momentum, averaging 5.2% per year from 2018 to 2022 on robust domestic private spending and the implementation of planned infrastructure initiatives. Cambodia, Lao PDR and Myanmar are projected to grow the fastest of the ten member countries in the next five years through 2022, while the Philippines and Viet Nam are expected to lead growth among the ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam). The external positions of Emerging Asian economies have remained generally robust, although the direction of recent current account trends varies and foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflows have weakened in some countries. Central banks’ accommodative monetary stances persist, anchored on benign inflation, notwithstanding the recent manifestations of renewed price pressures. In turn, the stances of monetary authorities, coupled with low risk perceptions, support the palpable optimism in capital markets. Meanwhile, increased infrastructure spending looks set to contribute to continued expansionary fiscal policies in the near term. The widening of the fiscal gap may be a concern in certain economies, but generally overall positions are stable. The most prominent overarching risks to growth at this point are the possibility of a more rapid monetary policy contraction in advanced economies; the rapid rise in private-sector debt; and the broadening of trade restrictions globally, coupled with limited progress in regional trade agreements.