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International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (1993–2017)

Fairly consistent findings were produced, suggesting that there are three statistically significant variables most often associated with political upheavals:

Thus partial democracies with low involvement in international trade and with high infant mortality are most prone to revolutions

Quantitative models developed during the study would have accurately predicted over 85% of major state crises events occurring in 1990–1997.[4] However while the models can predict state crises, they cannot predict their magnitude and eventual outcome.[

There are four versions of the Political Instability (State Failure) Problem Set data; each are downloadable from the PITF Problem Set page in Microsoft Excel format.[This format was chosen because it is readily importable to most spreadsheet and statistical software applications. The four versions are as follows:

  • PITF Ethnic Wars 2004.XLS (76 episodes/719 case-years)
  • PITF Revolutionary Wars 2004.XLS (64 episodes/472 case-years)
  • PITF Adverse Regimes Changes 2004.XLS (112 episodes/284 case-years)
  • PITF GenoPoliticides 2004.XLS (41 episodes/268 case-years