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Effect of Riot Exposure on Beliefs about Peace and Security

We now ask how rioting by Southerners in Khartoum in 2005 affected non-Southerners’ attitudes toward separation. We code respondents as having been affected by the riots if they answered ‘‘yes’’ to a question that asked whether there was any fighting in their neighborhood during the August 2005 riots in Khartoum.25 This form of riot exposure was widespread, with an estimated 45% of non-Southerners reporting this to be the case. The first column of Table 1 shows results from a basic probit model of a respondent’s support for separation, which includes only location and group indicators in addition to our independent variable of interest. We find a strong and significant effect of riot exposure: support for separation (which takes the value of 1 if the respondent favors separation and 0 otherwise) is positively related to whether respondents reported having been affected by the 2005 Khartoum riots. Even more than five years after the Khartoum riots, the extent to which respondents were exposed to the unrest reverberates in their TABLE 1 Effect of Riot Exposure on Support for Separation Probit Model Dependent Variable: Support Separation (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Fighting in neighborhood .369 (.180)** .547 (.185)*** .470 (.182)** .530 (.195)*** .564 (.181)*** .806 (.203)*** Gender -.792 (.267)*** -.543 (.242)** -.560 (.243)** -.926 (.280)*** -.384 (.259) Age .002 (.006) .006 (.006) -.001 (.008) -.0003 (.008) .005 (.006) Working -.620 (.358)* -.689 (.347)* Self-employed .172 (.352) .254 (.308) Asset index -.187 (.119) -.281 (.107) Relative wealth -.025 (.111) .028 (.116) Education (log) -.124 (.122) -.093 (.130) Father’s educ. (log) -.051 (.110) .005 (.122) Paved roads -.056 (.216) Electricity .602 (.365) Piped water -.421 (.406) Cell service 1.079 (.333)*** Observations 940 870 848 838 729 815 Note: All models include AU and region of origin indicators. *p # .10, **p # .05, ***p # .01. 25We discuss and use additional measures of riot exposure later in the article. intergroup violence and political attitudes 9 responses to questions about the country’s status.26 Not only is this a testament to the magnitude of Black Monday in the eyes of many Northerners,27 but it also reflects the fact that the referendum, conducted just after we completed the survey, is linked to the CPA, which was signed and heavily debated in Khartoum in the months leading up to John Garang’s fateful helicopter trip and subsequent violence. In the remaining columns of Table 1, we show that the estimate persists and in fact increases when we include a variety of potentially confounding factors in addition to the location and group indicators already included in the first specification.28 This is consistent with reports that Southerners directed their anger at the relatively privileged riverine elite, whose baseline support for separation is low compared to other Northerners: the kind of limited targeting that