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Cultural differences and cognitive dynamics:

What is conflict analysis? Conflict analysis is a tool that helps to identify the root causes of a conflict, and to understand the triggers that may turn a latent conflict into a violent one. These triggers may include the intentional targeting of cultural heritage. How to carry out conflict analysis? A three-step method for conflict analysis is summarised below: it is based on guidance provided by the Department for International Development (DFID) in the United Kingdom and can be adapted to identify priorities for the first aid and recovery of cultural heritage. 1. Analysis of conflict causes. To understand the causes behind the conflict, it is necessary to analyse political, social, economic and security-related vulnerabilities. This analysis should incorporate various viewpoints, and include the following elements: a. broad contextual analysis (history of the conflict, physical and demographic features, and structural inequalities); b. a map of the source(s) of the tensions and conflict, which may include cultural symbols; c. the identification of links between sources of tension in different sectors, including the cultural heritage sector. 2. Analysis of actors who influence or are affected by the conflict. This focuses on an analysis of the shorter-term incentives and interests and should include: a. a list of all actors directly or indirectly involved in the conflict; b. analysis of the interests, relations, capacities, peace agenda, incentives for every actor; c. visual mapping. Note: In order to analyse conflicts involving cultural heritage, step two should include mapping of interests and stakes in relation to the affected cultural heritage. Situation analysis 39 3. Analysis of conflict dynamics. This concerns the assessment of the likelihood that a conflict will increase, decrease, or remain stable, as well as the long and short-term triggers involved. It should include: a. analysis of the longer-term trends; b. assessment of the likely shorter-term triggers; c. assessment of factors likely to accelerate or slow conflict dynamics (consider institutions and processes); d. development of conflict scenarios.