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‘‘Conservative Shift among High-Exposures

In combination, the results in Table 5 suggest that riot-scarred Northern Sudanese are navigating a trade-off between the proximal and the peripheral consequences of Southern secession. They are disproportionately weary that simmering conflicts like the one in the Nuba Mountains can escalate if the South is let go—not just because the partition could rekindle the determination of insurgents but also because the government in Khartoum has ramped up its efforts to brutally extinguish peripheral dissent. But peripheral conflicts have plagued Sudan for decades without many disruptions to life in the capital. The more proximate effect of secession would be the de facto removal of large numbers of Southerners who did disrupt life in Khartoum in 2005 and a corresponding improvement in perceived physical security at the local level. When faced with this trade-off, riot-affected Northerners tend to favor separation.